BTC — IS SPOT BUYING PREPARING THE NEXT MOVE UP?
Tomorrow, October 28, the Fed’s decision could become a catalyst for a major move in Bitcoin. The market expects rates to remain unchanged, but the key factors will be the tone of the statement and the outlook for a potential rate hike in December.
📊 BINANCE SPOT — THE MOST IMPORTANT PIECE OF THE PUZZLE
There are signs of increased interest in BTC buying on Binance. To confirm whether accumulation is actually continuing, we need to monitor Spot CVD and the taker buy/sell ratio rather than volume alone.
A positive Spot CVD indicates that aggressive buyers are outweighing aggressive sellers over a given period. If this trend persists alongside rising prices, it would provide stronger evidence that the move could continue.
However, aggregated Glassnode data for the past week showed negative Spot CVD. This is an important divergence: buying activity on Binance may be strong over certain timeframes, but the broader spot market has not yet confirmed a sustained buyer advantage.
📉 COINBASE PREMIUM — US DEMAND HAS YET TO CONFIRM STRENGTH
According to CryptoQuant data, the Coinbase Premium was approximately −0.126% on October 25. Another reading reported on October 27 was around −0.07%.
The discount has narrowed, but the indicator remains negative. This means Coinbase demand has not yet provided clear confirmation of strong accumulation by US investors.
🏦 THE FED — WHAT COULD TRIGGER VOLATILITY?
🟢 Bullish scenario: No rate hike and a more dovish statement than expected. If spot buying continues and the Coinbase Premium improves, BTC could gain momentum for a breakout.
🔴 Bearish scenario: A hawkish statement and persistent concerns about a December rate hike. In that case, a rally driven primarily by leverage could quickly reverse.
🔎 WHAT TO WATCH BEFORE AND AFTER THE DECISION
Binance Spot CVD — Is buyer dominance holding on the 1H and 4H timeframes?
Spot vs. futures — Is BTC being bought on the spot market, or is the rally mainly driven by derivatives?
Coinbase Premium — Is the indicator moving back toward zero?
Open Interest and liquidations — Is the move driven by fresh demand or short covering?
Price action after the Fed announcement — Does the breakout hold?
Bottom line: The market may be preparing for a significant move, but confirmation is still needed. The most constructive setup would be sustained spot buying on Binance, an improving Coinbase Premium, and rising prices without excessive growth in leverage.
Tomorrow, it won't just be about the Fed's announcement — it will be about who is actually buying BTC after the news.
Sources to monitor: CoinGlass — BTC CVD and spot/futures flows · CryptoQuant — on-chain data and Coinbase Premium · Glassnode — BTC Market Pulse report
NFA — Not Financial Advice.
